Economic Conditions and Consequences of Iran War 9 16 2026  

As Donald Trump’s war on Iran escalates, the main straits moving Middle Eastern oil are currently blocked.  First Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, linking the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea.  Then, the Yemen rebels, who sided with Iran, shut the Bab al- Mandab, linking the Red Sea  to the Arabian Sea.

What this did, in combination with drone strikes cutting off the East West pipeline, was effectively shut down Saudi Arabia’s oil production. Stopping the flow of oil from the pipeline, which would have moved the oil north to the northern Red Sea, from there to the Mediterranean, was stopped by drone strikes from inside Iraq by rebels there.

Unable to move large ships through the Persian Gulf, and now the Red Sea, the price of oil is rising.  Diesel is already at $6.13 dollars a gallon, that’s $1.66 a liter.  The price is still rising too.  It just keeps rising as it gets harder and harder to produce.

We can thank Donald Trump and his Republican bourgeoisie  for this.  Iran was attacked by Israel and the  Americans February 28th 2026, in an aerial bombardment that killed the leadership of Iran.  They killed the Ayatollah, and several of his  ranking leaders.  

They thought Iran would capitulate due to aerial bombing.  It was a foolish gambit.  Israel was connected, using  American f35 planes, the new fighter aircraft to bomb Iran.  But Iran was capable of using anti aircraft weapons, and shot down several of them.  It is unknown if they took it down and any technology was left.

The Iranians also proved capable of aerial attacks, hitting more than 50 military aircraft, and dozens of military bases the Americans were using in their war effort.  These bases were in Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and  the United Arab Emirates.  The question now is if it is even  worth rebuilding them, considering they  were vulnerable to attack.

I’m not going to give a body count, but people are dying. They really are fighting, and Donald Trump’s plans for a coup de tet in Iran installing American leadership seems to have failed.  Now the cost of Trump’s war is becoming clear, gasoline prices,and conversely, the price of everything else, as gasoline powered trucks, railroads, and ships move the commodities sold in the market. 

The inflation is  rising, making the price of money higher.  The central bank raised the interest rates, as money is becoming more expensive for investors to borrow.  Trump has repeatedly said the price of state money  should come down,  going so far as to remove and attempt to prosecute Jerome Powell, who refused to lower interest rates.  

But in reality  the central bank does not control the rate of interest.  That is governed by economic conditions, in this case inflation pressing against the interest rate. A rate of  interest, a measure of financial capital’s surplus value rate,  measured against inflation must be higher than inflation  or no one would invest in this financial capital.   Inflation interferes with the profit rate.  It makes it fall,  as the value of everything rises.  Thus the central bank has thus raised interest rates in response to a lowering of profit from financial capital, a direct result of Trump’s embarrassing failure to control Iran.  

The Republican bourgeoisie has done this to themselves.  In the process the rest of the country has come with, and it is costing  tens of billions of dollars.  It is likely the national debt will increase again, as this occurs when countries declare war.  It is that or raise taxes, which can also occur but for obvious reasons is unpopular.  The answer is to indebt the nation, then pay it back after victory.  

Trump thought Iran would give in, and  money would come from the imperialist effort to effectively colonize Persia.  It worked in Iraq, I guess they thought it would work again.  It didn’t work so well in Afghanistan, resulting in an expensive failure after 20 years of all out war.   Perhaps they thought this would help pay off the debt from this?

Well now that we see Trump’s failure, and his bourgeoisie,  elections are coming in November. Will suffrage treat Trump favorably?  It’s his fault Iran was attacked.  They did not bomb an Army base, or even kill an American over there.  They totally just attacked Iran because they could, and they looked weak.

It turned out they weren’t, will suffrage reward Trump’s party with seats in November?  The price tag is already  starting to form, with the price of gasoline one of  the first effects. They could ban the export of Diesel, but  that is not capitalism.  It is a subsidy to the companies producing oil; if they could sell it on the market it would cast more, which will hit profits.  The oil companies are the last people we should expect to lower prices out of the goodness of their hearts. I suppose they could be forced to sell diesel at below market prices, at a loss.  But more likely would be compensation paid to the companies, a state subsidized product of petroleum.

And after it is done with, the price of oil will fall, no longer requiring subsidies?  Another assumption which is difficult to make.  One thing that is clear is subsidizing the price of gasoline is not capitalism.  Tariffs also challenge market economies, free trade is usually something market economies strive for.  Trump could subsidize fuel, but again it has a price.  Given taxes would pay for it, everyone will pay eventually.  Indebting it only adds an interest rate to the money; it costs even more to pay for the debt than if you just raised that amount.

Come November we may see just how intelligent the proletariat is.  The opposition party, the radical democrats, could gain control of the House of people would not vote for Trump’s party the Republicans.  It would be a defeat of his economic program.  Recognition of the fact the price of gasoline and everything else is rising due to his economic and political activities as leader.

Or things could work out for Trump, Iran could give in, and Don could expropriate the oil for his imperialism needs.  

The latter looks unlikely, and the question becomes will the  Democrats who may inherit Don’s war will  continue it.  They already voted in Congress for it to end.  

A day of reckoning may be coming.  It depends on if suffrage can control the  reactionary bourgeoisie.  If it can, it will be a historic victory for the  American workers. 

Nicholas Jay Boyes

Milwaukee Wisconsin 

American Democratic Republic

9 16 2026

Futility of Nuclear Weapons.  Detente with the Iranians. 6 29 2026 

As you may remember, on 6 15 2026, I  published an article about the war in Iran ending.  It looked then like Donald Trump was done trying to overthrow the Persians.  Things began to change then, and what looked like a defeat for Israel and the  Americans, was continued.

Well the war was not done with.  The grandiose ideas of putting  the Shaw’s son to  power, whose father  Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, was overthrown by the Islamic revolution there in 1979, is still being taken seriously by some.

I’m not going into detail about what the son of the Shaw Reza Pavlani does, but he is politically motivated to rule Iran, and it looked like he had a live one with the American bourgeoisie.  According to Reuters he is pretty rough, there have been politically motivated murders attached to him, and hooliganism like attempting to have Iranian publican places fly the old Iranian flag.

Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu have had to accept less lofty goals, as Iran refuses to give up.  The jet aircraft bombings have not removed the government there, and the Iranians have shown their drones and missiles have been able to hit the Army’s planes, about 50 so far have been destroyed.  

The manufacture of cheap drones, which require advanced anti missile defenses like Patriot missiles to knock down, are able to reach the other countries where the  Army takes off its planes from, like Kuwait, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates (UAE), etc.   They even have had some luck striking farther, but long range drones rarely work with missile defenses and modern capitalism warfare.

We can say though; each Patriot missile fired costs a million dollars.  Iran’s drones cost a fraction of that, probably very little or next to nothing without a bomb in it.  Every time they fire them it costs the Arabs millions of dollars in American weapons.

So things haven’t been so cost effective.  

“WASHINGTON, July 21 (Reuters) – The cost of the United States’ war in Iran has risen to $37.5 billion ​so far, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Tuesday, as he faced skeptical lawmakers for the first time since heavy ‌bombings resumed to seek urgent funding for the unpopular conflict.”

“With just six months before midterm elections in which President Donald Trump’s Republicans may face an uphill battle to keep their House of Representatives and Senate majorities, Democrats are riding high in public opinion polls as they attempt to link the unpopular Iran war with affordability.”

“Hegseth told lawmakers at a ​hearing in Washington that the $37.5 billion included certain aspects of the war as well as anticipated costs through September 30. “ 

“It was unclear ​how the Pentagon arrived at the figure. A source told Reuters in March that Trump’s administration estimated the first six ⁠days of the war had cost at least $11.3 billion.”

“Trump asked Congress last month for nearly $90 billion in additional funding, most of it related to the Iran conflict, ​setting the stage for another fight with lawmakers frustrated with the war and facing the November midterms.”

Reuters July 21st 2026

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-war-iran-has-cost-375-billion-so-far-pentagon-says-2026-07-21

For someone who went into power promising to make government smaller, who with Elon Musk vowed to reign in excess spending, in particular the DOGE efforts, Trump has managed to tax another 90 billion dollars on the countries bill.  Is this supposed to somehow reduce the cost of government?  Is it getting any smaller in the pentagon?

Although there has been a smaller civilian government,  the Army just keeps costing more and more.  Trump has asked for 1 and a half trillion dollars for the military this year.  It’s the largest amount in history.  Yet we are supposed to believe government is shrinking not growing.

The first 6 days cost 11.3 billion dollars.  It has been off and on, but is now 37.5 billion dollars, and Trump wants 90 billion more.  

I was wrong to suggest the war was ending.  One thing I am certain about though, is how stupid the Iranians would be to build an atomic bomb. Clearly they have shown that  even without control of their skies they remain powerful, and able to send out drones and cause considerable damage ot petroleum facilities and US Army bases in Iraq and Kuwait.  

A nuclear bomb has not been needed.   Congress has already voted to end the war, Trump refuses to accept this even  though some of his own Republican bourgeoisie voted for it.  It is sort of in limbo; it passed without effect.  

Afghanistan was also lost without the Taliban having nuclear weapons.  If Iran was smart they would realize the futility of enriching uranium, and join the nonproliferation treaties. They should call Trump’s bluff, and give up enrichment and building a bomb.  It would remove one of Trump’s supposed reasons for why he is attempting to make private property again Iran’s petroleum.  That would be detente; Trump would be left with no spoils for his Persian adventure. Iran would lose nothing.  If anything they could  start really demoralizing the bourgeoisie by closing the Strait of Hormuz again, which also does not require atomic weapons. It make the ships voyages longer, and now Iran’s fiends the Houthis in Yemen  are cutting off the Red Sea, meaning Saudi oil has to flow through the Mediterranean.

You can see where this ship of fools is going.  A small spill in the Mediterranean would endanger the whole enterprise.  Iran doesn’t even have to bomb the ship, with the quantity moving through a spill is inevitable.  It is just a matter of when.

Trump is running out of options.  He needs more money, and the reason for what he is doing is he is claiming to be stopping Iran from building an atomic bomb. Which we have seen would be true folly by the Persians.  If it makes him happy to suggest he stopped Iran from getting the bomb, good for him.  In the meantime, capitalist warfare technology is catching up on the aircraft and carrier ships paradigm.  The hand of technological progress continues moving forward., even in Iran.

Nicholas Jay Boyes

MIlwaukee WIsconsin

American Democratic Republic

7 29 2026

In respect to the conflict between Donald Trump. Benjamin Netanyahu, and Iran, it remains to be seen what will come of it.  At this point it looks like a successful coup de tet, killing Ayatollah Khamenei, and many of his following who were in power.

But no territory was gained by Israel or America, indicating the lack of a clear victory. 

And there is yet to be talk about American capital flowing into Iran, to employ the conquered people, with the goal of making a profit for America.

So it is not a victory yet.  There is currently a cease fire agreement, but the American power is blockading Iran’s ports in the Strait of Hormuz, in retaliation for Iran stopping traffic there.

The strait carries massive quantities of oil to foreign markets, including all of Kuwait and Iraqi oil.  At best Trump bombed some industry there that was pumping oil in Iran, I  guess this looks  like victory?

Israel has yet to remove Hamas from Gaza, even with F35 aircraft the Americans gave them.  Hamas, with no air force, like Afghanistan, again shows the limitations of airplanes bombing cities.  It has been more than 2 years now, Israel has yet to declare victory.  

Yet Trump thought this same group was capable of easily conquering Iran, that  have  industry, and a population twice that of Iraq.

Clearly Trump picks winners.  The way we will know if he won if the oil becomes property of ExxonMobil, like it did in Iraq.  In which case, it brings home profit for the bourgeoisie, which says the adventure had a purpose rather than simple punishment with destruction of a developing world power.

It will be very difficult to secure the Strait of Hormuz if Iran decides to block it again,  as it recently did. You would almost have to remove Iran from the coast, where they could attack boats they didn’t want in the strait.  

And if the goal is simple destruction, it is too easy with a missile or grenade launcher to effectively stop the shipping companies from wasting their capital to traverse a dangerous strait when they can do business elsewhere without insurance needed for a trip through the passage,

OIl prices have almost doubled, and American industry is still building fossil fuel vehicles.  The non metric trucks from Detroit cost a small fortune to commute in.  They are feeling the pressure, as China continues to build electric cars, and the solar panels and wind power to recharge them.  By 2030 about a third of China’s energy will be produced by renewable energy.

I guess if they win they get the Standard Oil monopoly’s fields back. But that cannot stop climate change, driving the economy to renewable energy.  All the oil in the world cannot stop the fact that burning fossil fuels is damaging the ecology, causing the temperature to rise.  It causes freak storms, high temperatures for short periods up north.  It is a monster the likes of which no human has ever seen or had to live with. 

And there is no question that if Iran’s oil returns to the bourgeoisie they will  pump as much as possible, with little or no concern for ecology.  At best they  will create some surplus value for ExxonMobil, and it will  come home to America.

If it stops now it is hard to call it a victory.  They know that, and that is why more men are going there in the Army to fight.  Nothing has been gained financially from bombing Iran, if anything closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cost capitalists money; the shipping companies cannot sail the ships, oil has doubled in value, and rebuilding Iran will cost hundreds of billions of dollars.

Trump looks like he has committed the young men to another endless war in the Middle East.  They just never stop.  Real estate there keeps motivating the bourgeoisie to attempt to conquer.  This is no different than Iraq or Afghanistan, and the latter should show us the limitations of this style or warfare they think will easily win with.

Nicholas Jay Boyes   

Milwaukee Wisconsin

American Democratic Republic 

4 16 2026